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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
January 29, 1258: The army of Đại Việt under the Trần dynasty defeats the Mongols at the Battle of Đông Bộ Đầu. Their defeat was so severe that the Mongols were forced to withdraw from Đại Việt, marking the end of their first attempt at conquering modern Vietnam. The Mongols made two more attempts in the 1280s, both failed, before the Trần rulers decided to make themselves vassals of the Mongols in order to forestall further incursions.
January 29, 1980: The Rubik’s Cube debuts at a toy fair in London. With an estimated 400+ million sold in the 40 years since, it’s generally considered the most popular toy ever devised.
January 30, 1959: After over four years, the Sultan of Muscat and Oman, Said bin Taimur, defeats a rebellion by the elected Imam of Oman, Ghalib Alhinai, that is known as the Jebel Akhdar War. The war ended the split between the coastal sultanate and the Imamate of Oman, which controlled the interior of Oman and had been nominally but not really practically subject to the sultan in Muscat. It also ensured that Said would control Oman’s oil reserves, most of which were in the Imamate’s territory. That in turn meant that Britain, as Said’s benevolent great power patron, would actually control said oil. So it really worked out well for everybody.
January 30, 1969: The Beatles give their last public concert, an unannounced affair on the rooftop of their Apple Corp (no, not that Apple) headquarters on Savile Row in London. The band played a 42 minute set before police shut them down. The band broke up that September.
January 31, 1865: The US Congress passes the 13th amendment to the Constitution, abolishing slavery. President Abraham Lincoln signed it the following day, and the amendment was then submitted to the states for ratification, reaching the required three-fourths threshold in December. Several states took longer to ratify the amendment, including Mississippi, whose leaders finally decided that slavery ought to be illegal in, ah, 1995. I guess they just really needed some time to think about it.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for January 31:
103,512,506 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (26,155,970 active, +394,861 since yesterday)
2,237,198 reported fatalities (+9286 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
14,048 confirmed coronavirus cases (+50)
921 reported fatalities (+5)
At least 13 people have been killed this weekend in a pair of bombings and a shooting across northern Syria. The two bombings took place in the Turkish-controlled region of northern Aleppo province, and killed at least six civilians (in the town of Azaz) and at least six Turkish-aligned fighters (near the town of al-Bab), respectively. Given the location these bombings seem likely to have been carried out by the Kurdish YPG militia, though the Islamic State cannot be ruled out as a suspect.
Meanwhile, in the Kurdish-controlled city of Hasakah in northeastern Syria, Kurdish security forces reportedly shot and killed at least one person and wounded four others who were participating in a demonstration against Kurdish rule and in support of the Syrian government. The Kurds claim their forces came under fire from the crowd of protesters and were defending themselves. The protesters say their pro-government neighborhood in Hasakah has been effectively besieged by the Kurds, who are preventing even basic needs (flour, water, fuel, etc.) from entering.
YEMEN
2121 confirmed cases (+1)
615 reported fatalities (+0)
The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen reported on Saturday that its forces shot down a Houthi-launched drone over northern Yemen that appeared to be heading for Saudi Arabia.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
643,435 confirmed cases (+4646) in Israel, 158,962 confirmed cases (+403) in Palestine
4796 reported fatalities (+58) in Israel, 1833 reported fatalities (+2) in Palestine
Israeli soldiers shot and killed a Palestinian man who reportedly attacked them with some sort of knife or knife-like weapon near the Gush Etzion settlement cluster in the West Bank on Sunday. There were no reports of any injuries to Israeli personnel.
SAUDI ARABIA
368,074 confirmed cases (+261)
6375 reported fatalities (+3)
It’s a sign of the times, I guess, that the Saudi government is reportedly cleaning up the kingdom’s fairly notorious school textbooks:
Gone is a section on sodomy that was supportive of capital punishment for homosexual relations. Gone are most adulations of extremist martyrdom and its characterization as the highest aspiration of Islam. Anti-Semitic references and calls to “fight Jews” are now far fewer, with the latest edition of a 10th-grade textbook having removed a passage quoting the prophet Muhammad as saying, “The [Day of Judgement] will not come until Muslims fight the Jews, and the Muslims will kill them [all].”
The Institute for Monitoring Peace and Cultural Tolerance in School Education (IMPACT-se), an Israel-based group that monitors school curriculums, welcomed the changes. The group’s chief executive, Marcus Sheff, called them “quite astonishing.”
But some concerns about anti-Semitic themes remain. One textbook still includes a story about a Jewish boy who is saved from hell by being converted to Islam.
Another passage refers to a Koranic text that describes God changing a group of Jews into “real monkeys.” A review by IMPACT-se in December said the Saudi textbook ruled out “other, gentler interpretations” of the episode that treat the passage metaphorically.
OK, so it’s a bit of a work in progress. Baby steps and so forth.
IRAN
1,417,999 confirmed cases (+6268)
57,959 reported fatalities (+70)
On Saturday, the Iranian Foreign Ministry rejected any suggestion of new negotiations around the 2015 nuclear deal, or of adding new participants to that agreement. The rejection was prompted by French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments on Friday suggesting that Saudi Arabia should be involved in “any new negotiations” with respect to the nuclear accord. I’m not sure exactly what Macron said and there are a couple of possible interpretations. On the one hand if he really was talking about negotiations dealing specifically with the nuclear deal, that’s pretty silly and it’s likely he was pandering to the Saudis. There’s nothing to negotiate with respect to the nuclear deal—either the US and Iran return to compliance with its terms or they don’t. No talks are needed and indeed there’s no good faith basis for any new talks to take place unless/until all the parties—the US in particular—decide to honor the agreement they’ve already made.
On the other hand, it’s possible he was referring to negotiations on broader, regional issues that might follow a restoration of the 2015 deal. If that’s what he meant then it’s perfectly reasonable and probably even imperative that the Saudis participate. And interestingly enough it’s starting to look like the climate for regional diplomacy is improving, in part because of the arrival of the Biden administration and Joe Biden’s many suggestions over the past several months that he intends to improve US relations with Iran while reviewing relations with Saudi Arabia. A new opinion piece in The Guardian, co-written by Gulf Research Center founder Abdulaziz Sager and former Iranian diplomat Hossein Mousavian, lays out some proposals for structuring a regional diplomatic framework:
During the past four decades, relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran have oscillated between confrontation and competition but also cooperation. Today, we are at the bottom of a cycle. Yet we share a sense that while our governments stand at odds on a range of regional issues, there is nothing inevitable about this enmity — nor is it condemned to be permanent.
The first step toward a tolerable modus vivendi would be for each side to recognise the other’s threat perceptions — real or imagined — and embrace a set of foundational principles upon which to build.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
55,059 confirmed cases (+36)
2404 reported fatalities (+4)
At least eight Afghan security personnel were killed Saturday when a suicide bomber drove a truck bomb onto their base in Nangarhar province. Other accounts have the death toll as high as 15. The Taliban claimed the attack. In related news, one of the Afghan government’s negotiators in Doha, Rasul Talib, warned on Sunday that Kabul may be close to pulling out of the Afghan peace process altogether if the Taliban does not return to the negotiating table soon. Taliban leaders have been regrouping with their allies—Russia on Friday, Iran over the past week—perhaps trying to assess where they stand after the change in US presidential administrations.
The Biden administration has been somewhat coy about how it intends to proceed, asking current US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad—who negotiated February’s peace deal between the US and the Taliban—to stay in his post while also saying it wants to “review” that peace deal to assess the Taliban’s compliance with its obligations. Taliban officials say they still expect the US to withdraw its forces completely from Afghanistan by the end of April, as stipulated in their agreement, but there’s reason to suspect the Biden administration is planning to…oh, let’s say “adjust” that timetable. Most recently, there’s word just this weekend that forces from other NATO members may be planning to extend their deployments in Afghanistan beyond the end of April. Nothing in this world is certain, and maybe this is part of a negotiating tactic to pressure the Taliban, but there is no conceivable circumstance under which other NATO states would stay in Afghanistan if the US withdraws. So if they are planning to stay, they presumably expect the US to do likewise.
MYANMAR
140,145 confirmed cases (+281)
3131 reported fatalities (+6)
In what is very much a developing story, Myanmar’s ruling (though probably not for much longer) National League for Democracy party says its leader, Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, has been arrested (along with other party leaders) by the country’s military, the Tatmadaw. While I suppose it is possible that Suu Kyi and her pals decided to knock off a liquor store overnight or something, I would say the chances are pretty good that the Tatmadaw is making good on those subtle coup threats its senior officers have been making over the past few days. Those threats became a bit less subtle after the military’s complaints of fraud in November’s election were dismissed by officials earlier in the week, and the Tatmadaw has been organizing pro-military demonstrations in several cities that could now become part of the pretext for whatever is happening.
Myanmar’s new parliament was to have held its first session on Monday though obviously that’s now been thrown into question. The military issued a statement on Saturday insisting that it is “protecting the 2008 constitution and will act according to the law,” which a lot of media outlets seemed to take as reassurance that it wasn’t plotting a coup even though to my eyes that statement was plenty vague enough to be taken in several ways. Myanmar’s military retained a great deal of power in civilian politics under the 2008 constitution that prefaced the country’s last transition out of military rule, but Suu Kyi and the NLD had won so overwhelmingly in both the 2015 and 2020 elections that the military’s authority had been substantially weakened. At this point it’s not clear what the military’s objective is, whether it’s simply the removal of Suu Kyi and company, the full re-imposition of military rule, or something else. Suu Kyi’s arrest will undoubtedly trigger an international outcry but like everything else about this story that’s still developing.
VIETNAM
1817 confirmed cases (+50)
35 reported fatalities (+0)
The Vietnamese Communist Party reelected 76 year old Nguyễn Phú Trọng to a third term as general secretary on Sunday, which by my count makes him the first person to serve more than two five year terms in that post since Lê Duẩn held the office from 1960 until 1986. Trọng, who also serves as Vietnamese president, has now twice managed to be reelected in spite of internal party rules that strongly suggest retirement for officials at the age of 65.
TAIWAN
911 confirmed cases (+2)
8 reported fatalities (+0)
A whole bunch of military aircraft flew through Taiwan’s air defense identification zone near the Pratas Islands on Sunday and none of them happened to be Taiwanese. Seven of those aircraft belonged to the People’s Republic of China, including six fighters and a reconnaissance aircraft, while one—another reconnaissance aircraft—belonged to the United States. What’s odd about this is that, while Taiwanese officials are pretty thorough in making these kinds of announcements whenever the Chinese military buzzes Taiwanese airspace or its territorial waters, it is fairly rare for them to acknowledge when the US military does so. It’s unclear why they did so in this instance except perhaps as a little show of force for Beijing’s benefit.
AFRICA
LIBYA
118,631 confirmed cases (+981)
1877 reported fatalities (+35)
The 70 members of the United Nations-organized “Libyan Political Dialogue Forum” are heading to Geneva to choose from among several candidates for the senior executive positions in Libya’s still-hypothetical interim government. There are 24 candidates to serve on a three-person presidential council and 21 candidates to serve as the country’s new prime minister, both offices charged with shepherding the country through an also hypothetical constitutional referendum sometime this year and an even more hypothetical general election in December. Despite substantial diplomatic progress with respect to ending Libya’s civil war over the past several months, there’s understandably some doubt as to whether all the diplomacy, which has been conducted everywhere but Libya, will translate into actual peace inside Libya. The appointment of these executives will be something of a make or break moment in that respect—if they aren’t acceptable to either or both of the country’s warring factions, then this whole peace process may implode.
ETHIOPIA
137,650 confirmed cases (+629)
2093 reported fatalities (+2)
Ethiopian officials have apparently been telling both the Biden administration and an audience at the Atlantic Council think tank that the situation in Tigray has “returned to normalcy” and that any suggestion to the contrary, or regarding possible war crimes in that region, is “false and politically motivated.” I’m not so sure about that:
Despite Ethiopia’s latest assertions, its recently appointed administrators in Tigray have estimated that more than 4.5 million people, or close to the region’s entire population, need emergency food aid and some people have begun dying of starvation. That’s according to leaked documents from a crisis meeting of government and aid workers in early January.
And a new account by a Doctors Without Borders emergency coordinator in Tigray, Albert Vinas, says “we are very concerned about what may be happening in rural areas,” with many places inaccessible because of fighting or difficulties in obtaining permission.
“But we know, because community elders and traditional authorities have told us, that the situation in these places is very bad,” he said in the account posted online Friday.
He described Tigray residents handing his colleagues pieces of paper with phone numbers and asking for help in reaching their families, whom they hadn’t heard from for weeks.
Meanwhile, a new audio recording purportedly from Tigray People’s Liberation Front leader Debretsion Gebremichael promises “extended resistance” to Ethiopian forces in Tigray. Debretsion is wanted by Ethiopian authorities but his whereabouts are unknown. The recording hasn’t been verified or dated so there’s no way to tell whether it really his him or when it was recorded.
SOMALIA
4784 confirmed cases (+0)
130 reported fatalities (+0)
Al-Shabab fighters attacked the Hotel Afrik in Mogadishu on Sunday, killing at least three people. Somali security forces surrounded the hotel but at last report the situation had not been resolved. That means there could still be additional casualties and it also means authorities likely have not had a chance to fully assess the situation. The upshot is that the death toll could rise, perhaps significantly.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
3,850,439 confirmed cases (+18,359)
73,182 reported fatalities (+485)
More than 5100 people are believed to have been arrested Sunday amid protests in cities across Russia calling for the release of detained opposition figure Alexei Navalny. The demonstrations are taking on a generalized anti-government sentiment, as Navalny is really the only serious totem for anyone who’s soured on Vladimir Putin. While there’s no indication this opposition has reached levels that should worry Putin, it does appear to be the case that frustration with corruption and over the hard-hit Russian economy are combining to erode Putin’s reputation.
UNITED KINGDOM
3,817,176 confirmed cases (+21,088)
106,158 reported fatalities (+587)
The UK government is seeking membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the free trade deal that replaced the former Trans-Pacific Partnership deal after Donald Trump pulled the US out of that arrangement. The UK is of course many things, but “trans-Pacific” is not one of them, which makes this decision a little odd. It also doesn’t do much trading with CPTPP members, and already has free trade deals in place with several of them. However, if, say, the Biden administration were to decide it wanted to join the CPTPP, then the UK could backdoor its way to a free trade agreement (of sorts) with the US without having to go to the trouble of negotiating one from scratch. That may be part of London’s thinking.
AMERICAS
EL SALVADOR
54,966 confirmed cases (+243)
1623 reported fatalities (+9)
Doctors Without Borders has halted its operations in El Salvador after one of its teams was apparently attacked by a gang while responding to a medical emergency outside San Salvador. The attack fortunately didn’t result in any serious casualties and at this point there’s no indication as to the responsible party or their motive.
UNITED STATES
26,767,229 confirmed cases (+107,816)
452,279 reported fatalities (+1886)
Finally, one of Joe Biden’s oft-stated foreign policy plans is to hold a grand “global democracy summit” as a way for devotees of the “liberal international order” to collaborate against authoritarianism and/or populism. There’s just one teeny problem, which is that the United States doesn’t really have any business lecturing anybody else about upholding liberal democracy these days:
A person familiar with the summit planning, which has been underway since before the election, said Mr. Biden was undeterred by the recent political strife in the United States and was likely to act as the host at an event with fellow heads of state, although details like the timing and location have not been determined. Others familiar with the process said they expected an event near the end of the year. A White House official did not respond to a request for comment.
In Washington, however, a debate over the idea has broken out among former United States government officials and academics. It narrowly concerns plans for the summit but involves larger anxieties about the country’s role as a global leader in the post-Trump era.
The immediate question is whether the political crisis is a reason to postpone the plan for the summit and reassess the push to promote the democratic model around the world, as some argue.
“The United States has lost credibility; there’s no question about that,” said James Goldgeier, a professor of international relations at American University and a former National Security Council aide in the Clinton administration. In a recent essay for Foreign Affairs, he argued that Mr. Biden should instead hold a democracy summit at home — one focused on “injustice and inequality” in the United States, including issues like voting rights and disinformation.